Is a heat pump worth it compared with a gas boiler? The break-even SCOP by country

It depends mostly on two numbers: how much dearer a kWh of electricity is than a kWh of gas, and how efficient the heat pump is over a whole winter, a figure called SCOP. With official household prices for the first half of 2026 and a gas boiler working at 90% efficiency, a heat pump costs less to run than the boiler once its SCOP is above about 2.5 in Italy, 2.8 in Germany, 2.9 in Spain and 1.7 in France. In Great Britain, on the Ofgem price cap for October to December 2026, it is about 3.0 (prices checked on 31 October 2026). Air source heat pumps measured in real homes reached an average of 3.1 in a German field test and a median of 2.8 in a British one. So for a well-designed system the answer is a clear yes in Italy and France, narrow in Germany and Spain, and in Britain, on a standard tariff with a modern boiler, slightly no.

How does a heat pump heat a home?

A heat pump works like a fridge run backwards: an air-to-water model takes heat from the outdoor air, even cold air, and moves it into the water of your radiators or underfloor pipes. Its electricity runs a compressor and a fan rather than making heat, so it can deliver several kWh of heat for every kWh it uses.

The heat it gives per kWh of electricity at a given moment is the coefficient of performance, or COP. It goes down when the air outside is colder and when the water has to be hotter.

An air-to-water heat pump takes heat from the outside air, the compressor raises its temperature using electricity, and the heat ends up in the water for radiators, underfloor heating and the taps.

What is SCOP, and where do you find it?

SCOP, the seasonal coefficient of performance, says how many units of heat a heat pump gives per unit of electricity over a whole heating season. The EU energy label rules for heaters, Delegated Regulation (EU) No 811/2013, define it as the “reference annual heating demand divided by the annual energy consumption”. A SCOP of 3 means 3 kWh of heat for every kWh of electricity.

The EU energy label does not print the SCOP. It shows an efficiency class for water leaving the heat pump at 55 °C (“medium-temperature application”) and at 35 °C (“low-temperature application”), the heat output for three climate zones on a map of Europe, and the outdoor noise level in decibels.

The product information sheet gives the seasonal efficiency in percent, worked out as the SCOP divided by 2.5 minus a small correction, so 150% means a SCOP a little above 3.75. Whatever figure you read, check its water temperature and climate zone: the same heat pump scores lower at 55 °C than at 35 °C.

What SCOP do you need to spend less than with gas?

The break-even SCOP is the one at which a kWh of heat costs the same from both machines:

break-even SCOP = electricity price per kWh ÷ (gas price per kWh ÷ boiler efficiency)

The part in brackets is what a kWh of heat costs from the boiler. In Italy: €0.1137 ÷ 0.90 = about €0.126; €0.3142 ÷ 0.126 = 2.5.

Country	Electricity per kWh	Gas per kWh	Break-even SCOP, boiler at 90%	Break-even SCOP, boiler at 80%
Italy	€0.3142	€0.1137	2.5	2.2
Germany	€0.3618	€0.1156	2.8	2.5
France	€0.2485	€0.1347	1.7	1.5
Spain	€0.2509	€0.0787	2.9	2.6
Great Britain	26.32p	7.97p	3.0	2.6

Where the prices come from:

Italy, Germany, France, Spain: Eurostat household prices, January to June 2026, taxes and VAT included. Electricity: nrg_pc_204, band DC (2,500 to 4,999 kWh a year); gas: nrg_pc_202, band D2 (20 to 199 GJ a year). Eurostat’s notes on gas and electricity prices say they include network charges and meter rental.
Great Britain: Ofgem’s price cap unit rates, 1 October to 31 December 2026, Direct Debit, average for England, Scotland and Wales, without standing charges; 5% VAT on gas, none on electricity until 31 March 2027.
Boiler efficiency: example values. Since 26 September 2015 most new gas boilers up to 70 kW sold in the EU must reach 86% seasonal efficiency (Regulation (EU) No 813/2013); an older one may be nearer 80%.

The threshold moves with prices. With Italy’s prices for the second half of 2025 (electricity €0.2966, gas €0.1481 per kWh) it was 1.8, not 2.5; in Britain, on the July to September 2026 cap, it was 3.2. For your own sum, take both prices per kWh from your bills (how to read your electricity bill shows where). The break-even says only whether the heat pump is cheaper to run, not whether it repays its price.

The bases differ: Eurostat spreads fixed charges over each kWh, the British figures leave them out. So the British threshold is not directly comparable with the other four; counting standing charges would raise it for a gas-heated home.

Leave a margin. The SCOP on a datasheet comes from laboratory tests, and in the British Electrification of Heat trial the efficiency measured in homes was below the SCOP worked out at design stage in 92% of them, and the median measured figure was about 18% below the median design figure (final report, December 2024).

A worked example: an Italian home burning 1,000 Smc of gas a year

Italian bills count gas in Smc, standard cubic meters. This example converts them with the reference value ARERA uses for its gas prices, 0.03852 GJ per Smc, or 10.7 kWh; your area’s value may differ slightly.

Assumption	Value	Source
Gas used in a year, all for heating and hot water	1,000 Smc	example value, change it to yours
Energy in 1 Smc	10.7 kWh	ARERA reference value, 0.03852 GJ/Smc
Gas price, taxes included	€0.1137 per kWh	Eurostat, first half of 2026, band D2
Electricity price, taxes included	€0.3142 per kWh	Eurostat, first half of 2026, band DC
Boiler seasonal efficiency	90%	example value
Heat pump SCOP	3 and 4	example values

1,000 Smc × 10.7 = 10,700 kWh of gas, about €1,220 a year, which the boiler turns into about 9,630 kWh of heat. For the same heat:

	Electricity used	Cost per year	Saving against gas
Gas boiler	n/a	about €1,220	n/a
Heat pump, SCOP 3	about 3,210 kWh	about €1,010	about €210
Heat pump, SCOP 4	about 2,410 kWh	about €760	about €460

With the previous semester’s prices (electricity €0.2966, gas €0.1481), gas would cost about €1,580 and the saving would be about €630 at SCOP 3, €870 at SCOP 4.
With an older boiler at 80%, the same gas gives about 8,560 kWh of heat, so the heat pump needs less electricity: the saving becomes about €320 at SCOP 3, €540 at SCOP 4.
In the next electricity band: the extra kWh can move the home into Eurostat’s 5,000 to 14,999 kWh band, where the Italian average was €0.2977; the break-even falls to about 2.4 and the saving rises to about €260 at SCOP 3, €500 at SCOP 4.
With a poor installation at SCOP 2.5, the saving is about zero.

The extra electricity may mean raising the contracted power (“potenza impegnata”), which cuts the saving. No independent survey of Italian purchase prices was found: ask for at least three written quotes. Simple payback is the price minus any grant, divided by the yearly saving, ignoring price changes and interest.

When is a heat pump not worth it?

Radiators that need very hot water in a home that loses heat fast. Efficiency drops as the water gets hotter, and a poorly insulated home with small radiators may need water near 55 °C or more on ordinary winter days. Old houses are not ruled out: in a Fraunhofer ISE field test (published 27 July 2020), 29 air source heat pumps in German houses 15 to 170 years old measured 2.5 to 3.8 from July 2018 to June 2019, 3.1 on average without two very good outliers, and the hottest water they needed averaged just under 44 °C.
Electricity much dearer than gas. In Britain the government-funded Electrification of Heat project, run by Energy Systems Catapult, measured a median seasonal performance of 2.78 for 428 air source heat pumps (September 2020 to September 2023, final reports published in December 2024), with half of them between 2.55 and 3.05. Against a break-even of about 3.0 with a boiler at 90%, a home with the median heat pump on a standard single-rate tariff would pay roughly 7% more for the same heat than with gas; against an older boiler at 80% (break-even 2.6) it would pay less. Tariffs with cheaper off-peak hours can change that.
Keeping gas only for cooking. The fixed charge stays: on the British cap, 29.68p a day, about £108 a year.
Little heating. A small flat in a mild climate may save too little to repay the purchase.

What about solar panels?

Electricity from your own panels is not bought at the grid price, so solar can lower the running cost. But panels produce most in summer and at midday, when a heat pump uses least; the figures above assume no panels.

Are there grants?

Grants change the payback, and they change often. In England and Wales the Boiler Upgrade Scheme gives property owners who replace fossil fuel heating £7,500 toward an air source heat pump; an MCS-certified installer applies to Ofgem and takes the grant off the price, and gov.uk gives no end date. In Italy the Conto Termico 3.0, managed by GSE, pays households who replace their heating with a heat pump a grant worked out from the heat pump’s output and SCOP, capped at 65% of eligible costs; you apply on GSE’s Portaltermico within 90 days of finishing the work, and amounts up to €15,000 are paid in one go. Both checked on 31 October 2026; check again before you sign.

What should you ask the installer?

A room-by-room heat loss calculation, so the heat pump is sized for your home, not copied from the old boiler.
The water temperature needed on the coldest day and around 0 °C, and which radiators must be replaced.
The SCOP at your water temperature (35 °C or 55 °C) and climate zone.
Noise: the outdoor sound power level on the label, where the outdoor unit goes, and local distance rules.
The contracts: whether contracted power must rise, and whether you can close the gas contract.
Three written quotes for the same work, each with the product information sheet.

This page explains how it works and what to ask; it is not financial advice or a design. Electrical work and paperwork are for a qualified installer or advisor.

Where to go next

My gas boiler is old: new boiler, hybrid or heat pump? compares the three choices.
How to read your electricity bill finds your price per kWh.
The coefficient of performance glossary entry explains COP.
Home energy: the complete guide brings together the ways to spend less on energy at home.
Heat pump vs gas boiler calculator works out the yearly running cost, the break-even point and the payback time for your home.
Home energy incentives by country lists grants and tax breaks for heat pumps, solar and batteries.

Common questions

Is a heat pump cheaper than gas?

To run, it is cheaper when its SCOP is higher than the price of a kWh of electricity divided by the cost of a kWh of heat from your boiler. With official household prices for the first half of 2026 and a boiler at 90% efficiency, that threshold is about 2.5 in Italy, 2.8 in Germany, 2.9 in Spain and 1.7 in France; with the British price cap of October to December 2026 it is about 3.0. The purchase price is a separate question: compare written quotes.

When is a heat pump not worth installing?

When your radiators need very hot water to keep a poorly insulated home warm, because the heat pump's efficiency falls as the water gets hotter. Also when electricity costs much more than gas where you live, when your heating demand is small so the yearly saving cannot repay the purchase, and when you keep the gas contract for cooking and still pay its fixed charges.

Can air source heat pumps work with radiators?

Often yes. In a Fraunhofer ISE field test in German homes between 15 and 170 years old, the highest water temperature the air source heat pumps needed for heating averaged just under 44 °C, and radiators ran at lower temperatures than expected. Whether your radiators are big enough is something only a room-by-room heat loss calculation can tell.

Is a heat pump worth it without solar panels?

It can be. The break-even figures on this page assume all electricity comes from the grid at the average household price, with no solar panels. Panels can lower the cost of the electricity you use, but they produce least in the winter months, when a heat pump uses most.

Why is my bill so high with a heat pump?

The electricity bill goes up because the heat pump replaces the gas you used to buy, so look at the two bills together. If the total is higher than before, the heat pump may be working below the efficiency you were promised, which a large British trial found in most homes; possible reasons include water set hotter than the home needs and a system that was sized or set up poorly. Ask the installer to check the settings against the design.

Topics: heat pumps, gas boiler, heating, energy prices, SCOP